U.S. Coronavirus Cases Are Down but Eclipse Spring and Summer Peaks

U.S. Coronavirus Cases Are Down but Eclipse Spring and Summer Peaks New cases have fallen almost 50 percent since the highest peak, on Jan. 8. Still, the numbers are far higher than at any point before Oct. 1. nytimes

The worst of the current wave of coronavirus infections seems to be behind us, with the seven-day rolling average of new cases trending down in almost every part of the country. Nationally, that average peaked on Jan. 8 at nearly 260,000 new cases; the figure for Feb. 3, 136,442, amounts to a 47 percent drop from that peak.

Some parts of the country, including the Upper Midwest, are experiencing bigger decreases in new cases than others. Four states in the region — Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota and Iowa — have seen average daily cases fall by 80 percent or more.

The places with the steepest decreases tend to be small counties where the overall case count is relatively small, leading to wild swings in the data. Restricting the data to about 600 counties that had at least 100 daily cases at their recent peak shows that cases have fallen 60 percent on average.

Most of the areas on this map showing smaller decreases experienced their winter peaks later, meaning they haven't had as much time to come down. For example, the Midwest peaked in mid-November, while the Eastern Seaboard peaked in mid-January.

The current decline remains most pronounced in the Midwest. In Hennepin County, home to Minneapolis, daily cases have fallen to roughly 200 from 1,200. Wayne County, home to Detroit, saw a similar drop, to 220 from 1,200.

Even while cases in the United States broadly are trending downward, some parts of the country are still reporting new cases at a rate higher than during the worst peak they experienced last year. This map compares current rates with past peaks, defined here as the highest daily average before Oct. 1. For some states that saw surges early in the pandemic when widespread testing was not yet available, these early peaks may be understated. ...